Premier League Predictions - September 28, 2012

So out of the first five weeks of the season, we’ve only posted one prediction post. Funny enough we actually did one last week but neither of us remembered to publish. Anyways, we are 3-5 so far on the season, lets try and get this above .500.

Alex in white, Jack in blue.

There are some big games this weekend, and none bigger than the opening fixture. Arsenal host Chelsea, at the Emirates at 12.45pm on Saturday. Huge game. Thoughts?

Yep, huge game, Arsenal and Chelsea both had big midweek wins against championship teams, I think the fact that the game is at Emirates may play a factor, 2-1 Arsenal.

It’s odd that so far this season, Arsenal have been better defensively than Chelsea, and I think that is what might win it for them. I’m completely torn between 1-1 and 2-1, but I’ll agree with you and go for a Gunners victory.

Olivier to score?

Haha. No. I think he’ll start on the bench.

Now I know Southampton got their first win last weekend but they’re up against Everton on Saturday, who have been in scintillating form. I can’t see this going any other way. 3-1 to the Toffees.

I think it’ll be a tight game actually, Everton lost during the week to Leeds, and the Saints did have a 4-1 win last week. I’m thinking 2-2. (I obviously think very highly of Villa)

Haha, don’t we all?

Fulham against Manchester City is next. Not quite cut and dry, this one?

Yeah, Man City lost to Villa midweek (!!!) but they were starting a very young team. Fulham will also be without Berbatov. This is a tough game to call, so 1-1 draw. What do you think?

On current form it’s hard to disagree. Fulham have been playing very well - I think Jol is doing a sterling job - and City have been faltering. That said, I think City’s strength in depth might just see them through this one. 2-1 City, Balotelli with the winner, and celebratory cigarette.

Liverpool take on Norwich. A chance for Rogers to get his first win, and I think he will. I don’t have too much to say about this one except that I’m backing Liverpool to win 2-0. Possibly 3-0. They’ve been getting better each game, despite not winning.

Yes I agree with you. Norwich simply aren’t very good and it looks like Liverpool are getting their team together. 2-0 Liverpool for me as well.  

Reading Vs Newcastle. Newcastle should win, but something is telling me they won’t. Alan Pardew just signed an eight year contract, and the club deserves to lose just for offering it to him. 1-0 Reading!

Eight! EIGHT! I’m shocked by the length of the contract. But this does bring stability to the management team. That said, eight is just ridiculous. I do think they have a good squad though, so I will go 1-1 draw.

Two teams that have been a bit up and down, next. Stoke take on Swansea, in this week’s designated game that I don’t care about one bit :) Your thoughts? (Actually, I’ve just looked at the fixtures and the next game is Sunderland/Wigan. I now care about Stoke/Swansea.)

Yep, we are getting into that section of the fixture list. I like Swansea, but they have a few key injuries and are not defending like they did at the start of the season. But I really hate Stoke, so 2-1 Swans?

I’m ok with that.

Sunderland Vs Wigan. Steven Fletcher is in lethal form. I think Sunderland will create one or two more chances than Wigan, and he has been taking them. So 2-0 Sunderland, I think. You?

Sure, Sunderland wins 2-1. I don't have anything to say about this game.

Haha. Oh! A good game. Old Trafford will witness Manchester Utd against Tottenham. Take it away.

Well, Man Utd have a problem at the back because Vidic is out again, so is Smalling. They will be relying on their youngsters this week. Tottenham has been playing well but this will be a really tough game at Old Trafford. I’m calling a 3-2 thriller for Tottenham.

I have to say, I hope so. If Villas Boas can get a win at Old Trafford - something Spurs haven’t done for fucking years - he will get a lot of credit, and the English media should start to cut him some slack. I think this game depends on the central midfield. Utd barely have one, so if Sandro, Dembele and Dempsey/Sigurddson can be strong and disciplined, Spurs have a good chance. I’ll take your 3-2 Spurs prediction.

On Sunday, your boys Villa take on West Brom, in the first of the midland derbies! I have no idea what the score will be, but I’m putting this down as a draw, with Lukaku scoring again. Because I love him.

We all love him, but Villa are playing well, especially the young midfield. Gabby is back on track and I think we will pull one out in this derby, 2-1, with the other Belgian, Benteke scoring.

Oh, yes! I forgot this was the battle of the (massive) Belgians. Brilliant sub-plot. Lets move on to the final game, which takes place on Monday night. Two teams I don’t particularly care for...it’s a London derby. QPR against West Ham.

More derby games, this I see as a 1-1 draw, neither teams are playing particularly well. I will also go out on a limb and say there will be a confrontation between Big Sam and Mark Hughes.

I would LOVE to see that, but I actually see them as two blokes that would probably get on quite well. Which is why I dislike both of them. 1-1 sounds about right.

That’s it for this week. Sorry for not posting these consistently! We’ll strive to do so from now on. Got an opinion on our predictions? Let us know.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Last week was a rough week for Omid and I. I finished with a 5-11 record (14-18), and Omid slumped to a 4-12 record (11-21).  Obviously we have been sub par so far, but the ESPN panel averaged out to a 7-9 record, so no one did well last week. Omid did win the game of the week though, so we are tied at 1-1. On to the picks.....  

The "catch" that brought the real officials back. 

1) Browns +12 at Ravens (Ravens win 23-16)

The Ravens got a big win last week vs the Patriots in a high scoring game.The Baltimore defense is not as good as it has been in the last decade but to their credit they did  pulled out the stops when they needed to. Joe Flacco threw over 375 yards and had 3 touchdown passes last week while Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards and also had a TD. The offense is licking its chops coming into this game against the Browns. The Browns lost last week to Buffalo in an ugly, ugly game. Weeden is a rookie QB and that inexperience is showing. Unfortunately for him the rest of the Cleveland team isn't very good either and his WRs can't seem to catch a ball. Trent Richardson will have a much better game this week but it won’t be enough to make it close. Baltimore 27-14.

Brandon Weeden is not a good QB; lets get that out of the way. If he had legitimate weapons, and a solid line, he would be decent. But he plays on Cleveland, so he has neither. According to football outsider, Brandon Weeden has a QB rating of 15 when pressured, and you bet that Baltimore will put a huge amount of pressure on him. Coming off a huge win against rivals NE, I think Baltimore rocks Cleveland at home, 28-14.


2) New England -4 at Buffalo (Patriots win 52-28)

Buffalo might be one of the better teams in the AFC, they gave up at half in the opening game blowout against the Jets. Other than that, the Bills have played very well. They will be in tough this week as they will probably be missing their best player in CJ Spiller. Fred Jackson, with the healing prowess of Adrian Peterson will probably be back this week, and that will help. However, the Pats will be angry after last week’s mess in Baltimore, where many questionable calls ruined what was otherwise a fantastic football game. Look for NE to come out and remove all doubt in people’s minds about their talents, NE 31-24.


Buffalo is a surprising 2-1 thus far in the season but the injury bug has hit them hard in the RB position. After Spiller had a fantastic week 2 he injured his shoulder in week 3 and is most likely going to miss week 4. Considering the running game is what sets up the passing offense for Buffalo they are in trouble this week. New England lost a tough one to Baltimore last week and will be hungry to bounce back. Tom Brady and the offense didn't miss a beat without their stud TE Hernandez last week and an extra week will make them even better. The defense so far has been up and down but will have an easier job this week (The Ravens have a top 5 offense attack in my opinion). New England 27-13.


3) Minnesota+5 at Detroit (Vikings win 20-13)

If you picked the Vikings to win last week and you weren’t a Vikings fan then................none of you, just as I thought. The Vikings ran the ball, took care of the ball and played defense like the 49ers last week. Christian Ponder is flying slightly under the radar and he looks poised to have a breakout year this season. Adrian Peterson is looking better and better each week and if it wasn't for the fumbles by Gerhart the game could have been more one sided. The Vikings defense also had a good game pressuring the QB, making it difficult for the 49ers to run the ball like they would like. the Detroit Lions were involved in a shootout and nearly came up with the best win of the week until the went for it on a 4th down in OT instead of kicking the field goal. No excuse for the “miscommunication” that happened, but they should have probably lost in regulation anyways so it all worked out; if you’re a Titans Fan. The Lions defense needs to get their act together before Green Bay figures it out or they could be out of the playoffs by week 7. This is a tough game to call but in Detroit I don’t see them blowing this one. Detroit 24-20.

Minnesota proved last week that winning on the road is a tough task in the NFL, by thoroughly beating the 49ers. Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph are studs on offense and Christian Ponder looked amazing last week. However they will have a tough time this week in Detroit. The Lions finally found a running back in Mikel LeShoure; the bruising runner is the perfect complement to the explosive passing attack of Detroit. Detroit lost to Tennesee last week in a game where everything went right for the Titans, but look for Stafford and Megatron to right the ship this week against the Vikes, DET 32-24.  

Theo Theo, get yourself together

Yesterday Theo Walcott publicly stated that the reason he has not yet agreed a new contract with Arsenal is that he wants assurances that he will play in his favourite position - as a striker. I won't quote him, but you can read his full statement right here. Whether this explanation is a cover for "I want more money and Arsenal won't give it to me" remains to be seen, but for argument's sake I'll take it at face value.

This isn't the first time Walcott has expressed a preference for playing as a striker. Expressing a preference is fine. Demanding to play any position, especially one you are quite clearly not suited to, is patently ridiculous.

I've always likened Theo to a Pokemon - briefly dazzling when chosen, but ultimately fucking pointless. Let me explain why Walcott is not suited to being a modern striker.  Arsenal play with one centre forward, as do all the best teams in Europe. 4-4-2 is used sparingly by some clubs, but overall some variation of 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 is the most commonly used set-up. Playing up front on their own, the striker needs to do more than just put the ball in the back of the net. The lone striker needs to be able to drop deep, link the play, hold the ball up, lay it off to supporting midfielders and have some heading ability. The lone striker needs good technique, a great first touch and nuanced tactical intelligence. Robin Van Persie could do all of those things, and had all of those qualities. Olivier Giroud can do most of those things and has most of those qualities. Theo Walcott on the other hand...

His plus points: He can finish. His technique has improved somewhat over the last couple of seasons, as has his run-making. He's obviously as quick as a rabbit being chased by anything hungry. Nevertheless he cannot claim to have the qualities necessary to play up front on his own. Look at the top forwards in Europe right now, in no particular order: Ibrahimovic, Van Persie, Ronaldo,* Torres, Aguero, Benzema, Messi, Lewandowski, Gomez etc. All of them either have a big physical presence, superior technique, or both. Walcott has neither.

I think my point is made. I'll now move on to why it was such a terrible bloody idea for Theo to say what did in public. Can a top, well-respected manager such as Arsene Wenger really be seen to submit to an ultimatum from an over-paid, inconsistent player? Can Theo Walcott really hold Arsenal to ransom? No. And that's why he isn't starting games at the moment (though he likely will in the Capital One Cup, tomorrow). He is being shown that he needs Arsenal far more than Arsenal need him. His public stand means that even if Wenger had been planning on giving the kid a chance up front, he might now re-think it  for fear of the public perception problem.

Ultimately, if his manager gives him the chance up front and he does alright, fair enough. If AW doesn't give him the chance and tells him to sling his hook, also fair enough. Walcott is a decent bloke and a dangerous player at times. He'll be snapped up if he becomes a free transfer. But he should know his place. He isn't that good. He isn't a natural striker. He isn't consistent. He is in no position to be telling his manager where he will and will not play.

*It would be suitable to point out that Cristiano Ronaldo has scored a goal-a-game for Real Madrid since he joined them, and has done so playing mostly from a wing-forward rather than central striking position. Take note, Theo.