Friday 28 September 2012

Week 4 NFL Picks

Last week was a rough week for Omid and I. I finished with a 5-11 record (14-18), and Omid slumped to a 4-12 record (11-21).  Obviously we have been sub par so far, but the ESPN panel averaged out to a 7-9 record, so no one did well last week. Omid did win the game of the week though, so we are tied at 1-1. On to the picks.....  





The "catch" that brought the real officials back. 


1) Browns +12 at Ravens (Ravens win 23-16)


The Ravens got a big win last week vs the Patriots in a high scoring game.The Baltimore defense is not as good as it has been in the last decade but to their credit they did  pulled out the stops when they needed to. Joe Flacco threw over 375 yards and had 3 touchdown passes last week while Ray Rice ran for over 100 yards and also had a TD. The offense is licking its chops coming into this game against the Browns. The Browns lost last week to Buffalo in an ugly, ugly game. Weeden is a rookie QB and that inexperience is showing. Unfortunately for him the rest of the Cleveland team isn't very good either and his WRs can't seem to catch a ball. Trent Richardson will have a much better game this week but it won’t be enough to make it close. Baltimore 27-14.

Brandon Weeden is not a good QB; lets get that out of the way. If he had legitimate weapons, and a solid line, he would be decent. But he plays on Cleveland, so he has neither. According to football outsider, Brandon Weeden has a QB rating of 15 when pressured, and you bet that Baltimore will put a huge amount of pressure on him. Coming off a huge win against rivals NE, I think Baltimore rocks Cleveland at home, 28-14.


2) New England -4 at Buffalo (Patriots win 52-28)

Buffalo might be one of the better teams in the AFC, they gave up at half in the opening game blowout against the Jets. Other than that, the Bills have played very well. They will be in tough this week as they will probably be missing their best player in CJ Spiller. Fred Jackson, with the healing prowess of Adrian Peterson will probably be back this week, and that will help. However, the Pats will be angry after last week’s mess in Baltimore, where many questionable calls ruined what was otherwise a fantastic football game. Look for NE to come out and remove all doubt in people’s minds about their talents, NE 31-24.


Buffalo is a surprising 2-1 thus far in the season but the injury bug has hit them hard in the RB position. After Spiller had a fantastic week 2 he injured his shoulder in week 3 and is most likely going to miss week 4. Considering the running game is what sets up the passing offense for Buffalo they are in trouble this week. New England lost a tough one to Baltimore last week and will be hungry to bounce back. Tom Brady and the offense didn't miss a beat without their stud TE Hernandez last week and an extra week will make them even better. The defense so far has been up and down but will have an easier job this week (The Ravens have a top 5 offense attack in my opinion). New England 27-13.


3) Minnesota+5 at Detroit (Vikings win 20-13)

If you picked the Vikings to win last week and you weren’t a Vikings fan then................none of you, just as I thought. The Vikings ran the ball, took care of the ball and played defense like the 49ers last week. Christian Ponder is flying slightly under the radar and he looks poised to have a breakout year this season. Adrian Peterson is looking better and better each week and if it wasn't for the fumbles by Gerhart the game could have been more one sided. The Vikings defense also had a good game pressuring the QB, making it difficult for the 49ers to run the ball like they would like. the Detroit Lions were involved in a shootout and nearly came up with the best win of the week until the went for it on a 4th down in OT instead of kicking the field goal. No excuse for the “miscommunication” that happened, but they should have probably lost in regulation anyways so it all worked out; if you’re a Titans Fan. The Lions defense needs to get their act together before Green Bay figures it out or they could be out of the playoffs by week 7. This is a tough game to call but in Detroit I don’t see them blowing this one. Detroit 24-20.

Minnesota proved last week that winning on the road is a tough task in the NFL, by thoroughly beating the 49ers. Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph are studs on offense and Christian Ponder looked amazing last week. However they will have a tough time this week in Detroit. The Lions finally found a running back in Mikel LeShoure; the bruising runner is the perfect complement to the explosive passing attack of Detroit. Detroit lost to Tennesee last week in a game where everything went right for the Titans, but look for Stafford and Megatron to right the ship this week against the Vikes, DET 32-24.  



4)Carolina +7 at Atlanta (Falcons win 30-28)

Carolina was really disappointing against the Giants at home last week. There was no fight whatsoever once they trailed. Cam Newton is now being criticized by his teammates for having no fight. Carolina is a mess right now and they are heading into the home of the best team in the NFC right now. On any given sunday, strange stuff happens in NFL so Carolina could win. Atlanta has looked great on their way to 3-0, and with the Saints so weak this year, Atlanta has a legitimate shot at 14-2 or 15-1. This is also a trap game for Atlanta, as they are riding high at home against a weak team, but I think they are too well coached to take this lightly. Atlanta takes it 28-21.

Big shout-out to Steve Smith for yelling at Cam Newton on the sidelines in the 4th quarter last week. If Cam wants to be a leader he cannot be sulking after having a bad game and not watching and learning from the last 2 minutes. This is his second season in the league so he still has a lot to learn but what he needs to learn quickly is the mental part of the game or else he will not make it too far in the league. The Panthers entire team looked bad last week or maybe the Giants were just that good. The Falcons are one of 3 teams at 3-0 and they are probably the best team in the NFC thus far. The offense is amazing and the defense is getting better and better. The way they stopped the Chargers offense last week at home and held Philip Rivers to 173 yards was phenomenal, they won't be as good this week but they will hold the Panthers to under 14 in the Dome. Atlanta 27-13.


5) San Francisco -4 at NY Jets (49ers win 34-0)

The 49ers are normal, who knew??????? They had a poor performance last week on offense. The passing game was out of flow and they couldn't get the running game going with Frank Gore. These kind of games will happen when you rely on your defense to win games and your offense to manage the game. Alex Smith needs to be more aggressive and start throwing the ball in games where they cannot establish the run. Thats why they have all these weapons for him right?? The Jets on the other hand won last week thanks to 2 missed field goals by the Dolphins. However, it wasn't all good news as they have lost Revis for the rest of the season. He allows them to bring a lot of different blitzes and basically takes away the best receiver on the opposing team all by himself. The offense still doesn’t look in sync and will have trouble against the 49ers D this week. San Francisco 20-10.

You know Jim Harbaugh will be fuming about the 49ers performance last week, even after he was granted 5 challenges the 49ers still lost. The 49ers are still one of the best teams in the NFC though. The Jets on the other hand, well they are the Jets. They played a subpar Dolphins team and barely came away with the victory. I have no idea what they are doing with Tebow as a receiver and it is becoming comical at this point. I think San Fran comes out with a convincing win this week, 35-14.

6)San Diego +1 at Kansas City (Chargers win 37-20)

Ah the AFC west, where no one is really sure if they are good and all the teams have a chance to win. Kansas City had a great comeback last week against NO in the Superdome. Jamaal Charles looked like the stud from 2010 again and the defense shut down Drew Brees in the 4th quarter. The Chargers took care of business against two bad teams in week 1 and 2 before showing their true colors in week 3, getting pummeled by Atlanta. Under Norv Turner the Charges goes through a swoon every year and that time is upon us again. They will inevitably win 4 out of 5 down the stretch and sneak into the playoffs at 8-8. KC takes it 24-18.


The AFC West, where inconsistency is the norm. The Chiefs came back to beat the Saints last week while the Chargers were held to 3 points at home against the Falcons. The Chiefs showed a lot of heart last week coming back to win the game and thats all thanks to the Defense. They were pretty good throughout the game and just awesome in the second half and overtime limiting the saints to 0 points. The offense still hasn’t found its passing game with Cassell but Charles was unreal running the ball. If the second half of last week is a sign on things to come they could very well win this division. The Chargers are who we though they are, the same team that looks so good one week and horrible the next. I cannot explain it at all. I see this team fall apart every season only to bounce back and fall apart again. I'm going with a bounce back weak and Rivers will have a big game. San Diego 28-17.

7) Tennessee +12 At Houston (Texans win 38-14)

Tennessee was part of a crazy game last week and ended up winning. Most shocking is that they didn't even have  big rushing day from C.Johnson. I don't see them being that lucky two weeks in a row but stranger things have happened. Houston on the other hand looked good vs the Broncos last week and are still undefeated. The defense is quick and gets to the ball very quickly. The offense runs amazing plays and can either kill you with the pass or the run courtesy of Arian Foster. This team has all the tools to go undefeated this season. Houston 31-14.

How did the Titans have 5 scores over 60 yard? They were playing the Lions. Unfortunately for Jake Locker and company, the Texans are not the Lions. The Texan’s 3-4 defensive front is prob the best in the league. Brian Cushing is a tackling machine in the middle and JJ Watts is playing on a whole other level right now. I see the Texans D smothering the Titans and running all over them with the great RB tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, Houston takes it 32-17.

8) Seattle -2.5 At St.Louis (Rams win 19-13)

We all know Seattle didn’t deserve the win last week, but that does not mean they played poorly. On the contrary, Seattle played one of the best first halfs this year out of any team, shutting down the vaunted GB offense and sacking Aaron Rodgers 8 times! That defense is quick and nasty, just like the Rams D actually. The Rams lost a close game to the Bears last week when the offense just couldn’t get going. I think whichever team’s O sucks a little less will win this week, so I have my money on Seattle, 18-12.

It seems Christmas came early in Seattle this year. The “refs”  gifted the Seahawks with a win on monday that even the NFL said shouldn't have counted (The NFL still didn't do anything about it, naturally). The Seahawks never quit and gave themselves a chance to win and it worked out for them. Their running game with Lynch is phenomenal but they need to run better plays for the QB Wilson. He has a great arm and quick feet but the offense hasn't taken advantage of his skill set enough. The Defense is the best tackling defense in the league and they play chippy old school Steelers defense. St.Louis had some potential but had a horrible showing all around last week. If i've learned anything about Jeff Fisher teams is that they don't have two weeks like the one the rams had last week. Look for the offense to have a better game and for the run to be a huge part of the offense. Seattle 17-10.

9) Miami +6.5 At Arizona (Cardinals win 24-21)

Miami blew two field goals to lose to the Jets last week. Good news is Reggie Bush didn't have any ligament damage and will be back this week if not next week. Thats about all the good news, the offense is a mess otherwise and Tannehill is going to need a full season at least to get comfortable it seems. The Cardinals are 3-0 and for some reason still cannot get much respect. They have a solid defense that no one really mentions and the offense has the weapons to put up points. What no one thought they had was QB but Kevin Kolb seems to have found his groove after losing the starting role. Arizona 27-17.

Arizona looked great against Philly last week. They now have arguably the best corner in the league in Patrick Peterson. The way Peterson plays is reminiscent of a young Charles Woodson in Oakland, I love his game. Also I am impressed with Kolb, he has looked almost good in the Dome. Ryan Tannehill on the other hand looks every part of a QB who has only started 1.5 years in his life. This game is in Arizona, look for the cardinals to go 4-0, 21-10 win.


10) Oakland +6.5 At Denver (Broncos win 37-6)

Well, I didn’t see that coming last week from Oakland, but after looking into their games closely, it makes more sense. The Steelers are not as good as we know them to be, especially without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Raiders lost week done due to missing their long snapper, and week 2 can be contributed to playing in the Miami heat in black uniforms. The offense looked great last year and the game will come down to the Oakland D vs Peyton. After a good start to the year, Denver has struggled against arguably the top team in each the AFC and the NFC. Peyton looks like he has a noodle for an arm and didn’t look great. But the Denver defense is solid and i think this will be another tight contest, OAK 28-24.  

Denver is still a mystery team to me. they have played arguably the 2 best teams in the league and lost each game by less than a TD. Manning has been rusty the last two games but he will get better as the season goes on and the passing game gets more polished. The Denver defense on the other hand is been on fire all season. They can rush the passer very well but they are weak in the secondary as demonstrated by last week’s mistakes. Oakland came up with a huge surprise win last week vs the Steelers. Darren McFadden looked awesome and Palmer didn't look half bad for an old guy either. The Raiders defense will have to be better this week because the Denver defense will not give up as many points as the Steelers did without Troy Polamalu. Denver 27-21.


11) Cincinnati -2.5 At Jacksonville (Benagls win 27-10)

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the league. He catches any ball that’s within arms reach of him. Andy Dalton is also a fantastic QB and can throw the ball to any spot for his receivers. The defense on the other hand is young and shaky. They give up a lot of points and cannot seem to stop the run at all this season. Jacksonville beat the Colts last week by running the ball down their throats and throwing it when the Colts played the run, so the same game plan could beat the Bengals this week. Maurice Jones Drew will get paid soon enough if he has a couple more games like the one last week, with the Bengals run D I think he will have another sensational game. Too bad the rest of the Jags are brutal. Cincinnati 31-21.

AJ Green is the best young receiver in the league, just gotta reiterate that. I love the Cincy offense, but their D is just awful. They almost let the Redskins march 98 yards down field with less than 2 minutes and no timeouts. Some wacky officiating later Cincy escapes with the win. I think they will do well this week, but this game is in Jacksonville and I think MJD will have a huge game. Jags take it 21-17.

12) New Orleans +7.5 At Green Bay (Packers win 28-27)

Hmmm, NO is 0-3, and the three teams they lost to have gone a combined 0-6, this team is awful right now. Anyone who thought losing Sean Payton wasn’t a big deal is clearly very wrong. The defense can’t get off the field and are no longer producing the types of big plays we expect from them. The offense is good but they cannot score if the D is still on the field. Green Bay is coming off one of the biggest injustices ever in the NFL. This game is at home and look for Green Bay to come out with a purpose. GB 45-28.

Green Bay got robbed last week. The o-line was also horrible allowing the Seahawks to have 10 sacks (8 in the 1st half). If they cannot give Rogers enough time to look at more than 1 option they will have to just use checkdowns and thats not the way that offense is been built. The running game on the other hand looked good with Cedric Benson last week and they should keep feeding him the ball. The NO Saints are the worst team in football right now. The scandal from the summer has drained these guys mentally and they just don't seem to be prepared to play a full game. Green Bay 28-20.

13) Washington +3 At Tampa Bay (Redskins win 24-22)
Washington has had a rough time playing defense all year and that was the same story last week vs the Bengals. The offense on the other hand looks amazing at some points and absolutely lost at others. Once the young guys on offense get comfortable they could be one of the higher scoring teams in the league, specially with the triple option. The Buccaneers on the other hand lost to the Cowgirls in the worst game of the week. I don't know what to say about the Bucs besides they confuse me every week and I don't like that. They play solid run defense but the offense is just brutal. Tampa Bay 17-13.

My poor Redskins, they looked awful in the first half against Cincy last week, the Defence currently cannot stop anybody and the offense will go through periods of struggle. Washington really got into the zone once the triple option offense was brought in but that can be easily stopped with some game planning. Thankfully for the Redskins the Bucs have looked awful so far as well, they cannot run or pass the ball at the moment, the perfect cure to the Redskins problems. Look for Alfred “The Butler” Morris to have another solid game and RGIII orchestrating some more traditional offense this week. I think Redskins pull an ugly one out on the road, 19-14.


GAME OF THE WEEK
14) NY Giants +1.5 At Philadelphia (Eagles 19-17)

Anytime these two teams play, we are treated to some fireworks. The NFC east is still the best division in the NFL and these two are the cream of the crop. The Eagles could easily be 0-3 at this point; Vick has played awful. However they still have one of the best defenses in the league. The Giants D on the other hand is hampered with injuries. The secondary is awful and look for at least one big play from Desean Jackson this week. I think the Eagles will come out with conviction at home and play well. However the Giants are the best NFL team on the road and I see the G-men pulling out a tight contest 28-27.  

Oh Baby what a Sunday Nighter. Eli vs Vick. Defense vs Defense. The Giants are looking better and better as the season goes on. They might be hitting their stride too early some would say but it could spell disaster for the Eagles who could easily be 0-3 right now. Eli and the offense are looking good and the defense is picking up where it left off last year, destroying offensive lines. The Eagles need to figure out their offensive issues and turnovers fast or they could be in a lot of trouble playing the division they play in. Vick needs to have a magical game to come up with the win this week. Philadelphia 24-21.

15) Chicago +3.5 At Dallas

Umm Romo vs Cutler. Romo everyday of the week, especially on Monday night in Dallas.
Dallas 27-21.

Nice and to the point, I love it. I think Demarcus Ware will just toy with the Chicago left tackle. I see Jay Cutler being sacked at least 6 times, Dallas 24-10.

No comments:

Post a Comment